The Trouble With Reports

The newly released UN IPCC has sounded a clear warning about climate change indicating that it is not just coming, it's here. But so what, who cares? Who's going to do anything? Has anyone changed their daily routine as a result of the report. Yeah, it's only just come out, but my god, people have been talking and warning about this stuff for decades, even centuries.

Will governments respond to the report? Well, they didn't to previous ones and, in fact, have managed to make matters even worse. Of course for those who have experienced the devastation of climate change, and there are millions, their plight surfaces briefly and quickly fade to nothingness. Sure, they may get some aid, but help seems to just flit from one disaster to another with little accomplishment in between.

It's almost as if Mother Nature is conducting guerrilla warfare-hit and run-leaving governments flummoxed as to what to do. Every time there's a climate conference little or no agreements are reached since the power of the oil/coal industries manage to use disasters to their financial advantage, even if they have to pay fines.

As the IPCC report says, "We're sitting ducks." Perhaps that's been the plan all along as it is quite obvious that 'reports' make little difference.

CLIMATE ARMAGEDDON

Is Climate Armageddon upon us? Well, there is good news and bad news. The bad news is yes, I believe that it is. The good news is that while we cannot stop it, we still have a little time to prepare for it. I am not trying to be an alarmist, that bell has been rung by others. And, while I am not a climatologist, you do not have to be one to read the message in the bottle. From all that I have read, the climate tipping point has been reached and we cannot stop the rising tide, pun intended, of major climate change impacts. The best we can do is to prepare and brace for impact, and, take immediate actions to try to lessen the duration of the climate event that has already begun.
By know, you have hopefully heard about the just released White House Report on Climate Change. I do not base my conclusions on the report but it does put it all into some level of perspective in terminology for the layman. The hi9ghlights of the report, and its website, are as follows:

“Climate Change Impacts
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: Report Home Page, The most comprehensive, authoritative report on Global Climate Change (http://globalchange.gov/)
1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.
2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow.
3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase.
4. Climate change will stress water resources.
5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.
6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.
7. Threats to human health will increase.
8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.
9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.
10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.”


The report details anticipated changes by regions of the United States and for many, it should be an eye opener. My only concern over the report is that it sets the timeline for these changes a bit far into the future. Even a decade is too far as these events are happening now and the severity of the events will soon grow exponentially. Keep in mind, every model that has predicted a climate change timeline has been proven wrong. It is all happening faster. Further, new factors emerge every day that speed up this timeline and unforeseen factors also pop up every day. The snowball effect has begun and reports will be unable to keep up with the downhill train. I would ask that you read some of the following stories that have hit various news and science sites. The key word is “some” as this is just a smattering of what is not always making headline news.

“UN humanitarian chief John Holmes speaks during a press conference in Khartoum in May 2009. Some of the world's biggest cities are at growing risk of "mega disasters", the UN's humanitarian chief said Tuesday, warning that climate change was behind a rising number of natural catastrophes.
The Red Cross joined the UN in urging more investment to ensure that cities, villages and small communities were better prepared for natural disasters that are being amplified by global warming.
Natural and man-made disasters killed nearly a quarter of a million people in 2008 and warnings about looming disasters, particularly climate change, are not being heeded, the Red Cross said.
At 242,662 people worldwide, this was the second biggest annual toll of the past decade, according to a report by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
Nine in 10 of those disasters were weather-related and they caused up to 200 billion dollars (145 billion Euros) worth of damage, Holmes said, calling it an "enormous concern".
"The effects of climate change are being felt now; they're not simply some future threat."

“Extreme weather, drought, heavy rainfall and increasing temperatures are a fact of life in many parts of the U.S. as a result of human-induced climate change, researchers report today in a new assessment. These and other changes will continue and likely increase in intensity into the future, the scientists found.
Researchers representing 13 U.S. government science agencies, major universities and research institutes produced the study, "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States." Commissioned in 2007, it is the most comprehensive report to date on national climate change, offering the latest information on rising temperatures, heavy downpours, extreme weather, sea level changes and other results of climate change in the U.S.”

“By mid-century, people may be fleeing rising seas, droughts, floods and other effects of changing climate, in migrations that could vastly exceed the scope of anything before, says a major new report. The document, authored by researchers at Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), the United Nations University and CARE International, was released at a news conference in Bonn.
While the report does not attempt to put numbers to those potentially uprooted, estimates from other reports it cites range from 25 million to 50 million by 2010, to almost 700 million by 2050.

• Breakdown of ecosystem-based economies including subsistence herding, farming and fishing will be the dominant driver of forced migration.
• Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of natural hazards such as cyclones, floods and droughts. Rains in parts of Mexico and Central America, for instance, are projected to drop as much as 50% by 2080. Farmers in parts of Mexico and North Africa's Sahel region may already be moving in part due to changing rains.
• Sea level rise directly threatens the existence of some 40 countries. Saltwater intrusion, flooding and erosion could destroy agriculture in the densely populated Mekong, Nile and Ganges deltas. A rise of two meters, or six feet--well within some projections for this century-- would inundate nearly half the Mekong's 3 million hectares (7.5 million acres) of farmland. Some Pacific island nations including the Maldives (pop. 300,000) are already considering prospects for total relocation.
• Ongoing melting of alpine glaciers in the Himalayas will devastate the heavily irrigated farmlands of Asia by increasing floods and decreasing long-term water supplies. The glacier-fed basins of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow rivers now support over 1.4 billion people.
• Most migrants will probably move within their own countries, or to countries next door. Many will be poor, and many will be unable to move far enough to improve their lots. Ripples from resulting conflicts and collapses will hit richer countries.”

June 10th, 2009 by Les Blumenthal, McClatchy Newspapers
In Washington State, oysters in some areas haven't reproduced for four years, and preliminary evidence suggests that the increasing acidity of the ocean could be the cause. In the Gulf of Mexico, falling oxygen levels in the water have forced shrimp to migrate elsewhere.
Federal studies also found acidity levels in the North Pacific and off Alaska are unusually high compared to other ocean regions. The high acidity is already taking a toll of such tiny species as pteropods, which are an important food for salmon and other fish.
As greenhouse gas emissions increase, billions of tons of carbon dioxide from smokestacks and vehicle tailpipes are absorbed by the oceans. The result is carbonic acid, which dilutes the "rich soup" of calcium carbonate in the seawater that many species, especially on the low end of the food chain, thrive in, Warren said.
"If we lose it, it is gone forever," Warren said of the oceans' delicate chemical balance.”

Coral reefs throughout the Caribbean have been comprehensively 'flattened' over the last 40 years, according to a disturbing new study by the University of East Anglia (UEA).
This drastic loss of architectural complexity is clearly driving substantial declines in biodiversity, which will in turn affect coastal fishing communities.
"The loss of structure also vastly reduces the Caribbean's natural coastal defenses, significantly increasing the risk of coastal erosion and flooding."

More and more, scientists are getting a better grip on the nitrogen cycle. They are learning about sources of nitrogen and how this element changes as it loops from the nonliving, such as the atmosphere, soil or water, to the living, whether plants or animals. Scientists have determined that humans are disrupting the nitrogen cycle by altering the amount of nitrogen that is stored in the biosphere.
The study, in the June 19 issue of the journal Science, is the latest to rule out a drop in CO2 as the cause for earth's ice ages growing longer and more intense some 850,000 years ago. But it also confirms many researchers' suspicion that higher carbon dioxide levels coincided with warmer intervals during the study period.
The authors show that peak CO2 levels over the last 2.1 million years averaged only 280 parts per million; but today, CO2 is at 385 parts per million, or 38% higher.
"We know from looking at much older climate records that large and rapid increase in C02 in the past, (about 55 million years ago) caused large extinction in bottom-dwelling ocean creatures, and dissolved a lot of shells as the ocean became acidic," he said. "We're heading in that direction now."

“The current solar minimum has been so long and deep, it prompted some scientists to speculate that the sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all, akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. This new result dispels those concerns. The sun's internal magnetic dynamo is still operating, and the sunspot cycle is not "broken."
Howe and Hill found that the stream associated with the next solar cycle has moved sluggishly, taking three years to cover a 10 degree range in latitude compared to only two years for the previous solar cycle.
The jet stream is now, finally, reaching the critical latitude, heralding a return of solar activity in the months and years ahead.” (NOTE: This is one of those events that could change everything in a very brief time span.)

“The world's ocean environment - and the fish in it - is facing catastrophe.
"These huge resources which we once believed to be renewable, that our whole human history has led us up until now to believe are renewable, are not renewable anymore because of what we are doing to them. And so our entire philosophical approach has to change. It is not going to be the same in the future as it was in the past." (FILM-The End of the Line)

LONDON, England (CNN) -- The first comprehensive report into the human cost of climate change warns the world is in the throes of a "silent crisis" that is killing 300,000 people each year.
More than 300 million people are already seriously affected by the gradual warming of the earth and that number is set to double by 2030, the report from the Global Humanitarian Forum warns.
"For the first time we are trying to get the world's attention to the fact that climate change is not something waiting to happen. It is impacting seriously the lives of many people around the world," the forum's president, former U.N.

Racing the clock: Rapid climate change forces scientists to evaluate extreme conservation strategies
May 25th, 2009
Scientists are, for the first time, objectively evaluating ways to help species adapt to rapid climate change and other environmental threats via strategies that were considered too radical for serious consideration as recently as five or 10 years ago. Among these radical strategies currently being considered is so-called "managed relocation." Managed relocation, which is also known as "assisted migration," involves manually moving species into more accommodating habitats where they are not currently found.
"…it is becomingly overwhelmingly evident that climate change is a reality; and it is fast and large. Consequences will arise within decades, not centuries."
"We have previously been able to say, 'let nature run its course.' But because humans have already changed the world, there is no letting nature run its course anymore.

There are many other stories in various science journals that tell of eco-system collapses; species extinctions; habitat loss; storm severity; ocean rise refugees; droughts; floods and more. These are current events, not future events. Add to this the disease issues caused by current climate change and the picture looks bleak. The point is that with all of the talk of carbon caps and new technologies, people are being lulled into believing that we still have plenty of time to deal with the issue. There is an attitude that we must first deal with the economy and then tackle tough climate change problems. Sorry, we do not have that luxury. Want to boost the construction industry? Start now by building housing for climate refugees. Begin now to move infrastructure away for coastal areas. Relocate people now away from devastating storm zones. Relocate people away from areas of looming water shortages. Start de-centralizing power grids to prevent total power supply chaos. Lots of jobs to be had from the pending disasters. Will anyone really listen to this warning? Probably not. Nothing much will happen until a major catastrophe hits a major Western country. Of course, by that time, it will be a bit late. It would seem that the forces are gathering to bring about a major 2102 event. The sad part is that it did not have to happen. No one HEARS a prophet until after the prophesied event actually happens. Nostradamus left some warnings along with the Hopi, Mayans and many more. Just an aside, when Brian Doe and I wrote the first two books of the “Waking God” trilogy we thought we were speaking of events that would be a bit further into the future. Funny how form can so closely follow thought. I will never forget the quote that greeted students in my old junior high school, “A word to the wise is sufficient.”

'IF YOU ARE NOT WILLING TO LEAD, THEN GET OUT OF THE WAY!"

“If you are not willing to lead, then get out of the way.” This sentiment was shouted at the U.S. by a repetitive at the recent Bali Conference on climate change. This will be the refrain of the world unless we, as a nation, make a determined effort to get our proverbial international act together with respect to climate change specifically and foreign policy in general. The deal signed at the Bali Conference does not require specific climate reduction targets by anyone, thanks to the U.S. Oh, but it does create an agenda for future discussions and negotiations. Some say that at least this keeps the dialogue going and, yes, that is a positive step.

Despite the E.U.’s desire to develop mandatory reductions of greenhouse gases, the U.S., backed by Japan and several other nations prevented stringent actions from being taken. The U.S. argued that numbers should not be assigned until after further negotiations which will not be complete until 2009. So now we will have two more years of discussion and then, maybe, we will sign off on numbers which will still have to go through the treaty process in the U.S. Does everyone think that the GOP will just say, “Sure, let’s put restrictions on big business?” After all, the major reason that the U.S. and China have balked at signing off on limits is because they say it will hurt economic growth. Will it hurt economic growth any less in two years? When India and the E.U. tried to include language that would require monitoring of technology transfer to underdeveloped countries, the U.S. decided it wanted further talks on the issue. While this position was reversed due to massive pressure, the damage to the image of the U.S. had been done.

Thanks to President Bush, the U.S. has bought itself more time to try to figure out how to avoid more regulations that would hamstring multi-billion dollar corporations. A key question is what kind of time do we really have? Will Nature wait for the U.S. and China to get on board with most of the rest of the world? The recent auto emissions standards signed by President Bush are a joke. By 2020 autos are required to get 35mpg. We are not that far from that now and most imports have already reached that goal. The bill also requires more use of ethanol which is basically produced and under the control of oil companies. Who wins? Not the environment and not the consumer. With the tax increase knocked out of the bill to force large corporations to pay for changes, who do you think will be footing the costs to clean up the emissions? Keep in mind that the 35mpg is not required until 2020, what happens to the emissions in the meantime?

With all of these delays it is important to note the condition of the environment is not improving. According to scientists, Artic ice melt reached a new high in 2007 with an area the size of Alaska gone. Sea ice loss up to 2006 was something like an average of 68,000 square miles. The loss of sea ice from 2006 to 2007 was ten times that amount or around 663,000 square miles. It is speculated that the Artic Sea could be ice free in the summer of 2013. The sea temperature has risen an unprecedented 5 degrees Celsius. If this happened in a year’s time, what makes the U.S. think that we have years to decide on a course of action to cope with the issues of climate change?

WHAT IF THEY WERE PRIESTS?

As the military junta in Burma puts the final nails in the pro-democracy movement an interesting question comes to mind. What would have been the world’s reaction, particularly in the West, if instead of monks, 6,000 priests were arrested? What would have been the reaction if 6,000 ministers were arrested? Or, what might have been the reaction if 6,000 Muslim clerics were arrested?

An October 7th AP report indicated that Burmese military authorities arrested 78 more democracy advocates on Sunday. Military authorities say that they have only arrested 1,000 and are only detaining 135 monks. Outside sources put the numbers at closer to 6,000. Adding insult to injury there are reports on the junta forcing civilians to march in support of the government claiming that dissidents are only a small minority that have been labeled by the Burmese government as terrorists.

While foreign governments have condemned the actions of the ruling junta in Burma, little has been done to offer support to the pro-democracy movement. The EU has widened some sanctions and the U.S. is pushing the UN for more sanctions but it is widely known that both China and Russia will veto such a move. It is easy to talk tough when you know there is little chance you will actually have to act.

Reports out of Burma today indicate that pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi will remain under house arrest which she has been for the 12 out of the last 18 years. The state controlled New Light of Myanmar claims that when a new state constitution is completed, all of the demands of the protesters will be within reach. An AAP story notes that work on reform has been “in Process” for the past 14 years and drafts of the new constitution leaves almost all authority in the hands of the commander-in-chief. There is very little light at the end of that tunnel.

Back to my opening question: would Western nations be so complacent and placid if the images come from Rangoon showed thousands of priests or ministers being beaten, shot at, hosed with water canons and arrested? If Catholic monasteries were emptied of their clergy and secreted off to some unknown and horrid prison, would there merely be talk of sanctions? What would Muslim nations do if they saw the U.S. arresting thousands of their clerics and closing mosques? Buddhist monks are probably the most peaceful group of people on the planet. They walk their talk. They seek not power and fight for the rights of all. Where are the churches when people cry out for freedom? What would happen if hundreds of thousands of priest, ministers and clerics defended upon the borders of Burma in support of their Buddhist brethren? What would happen if Burmese troops opened fire upon them? Interesting questions, but ones we will probably never have to answer!

SIGN A PETITION FOR BURMA?

Just hours after the departure of a U.N. envoy, Myanmar's junta continued a violent crackdown on its own people.

We need to act now to protect monks, activists and innocent civilians from further abuses. Reportedly, more than 10 people have been killed, and thousands of pro-democracy protesters have been detained. "It is an emergency," said Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, the U.N. human rights investigator for Myanmar.

Myanmar has an appalling human rights record. Thousands of political prisoners are detained in deteriorating prison conditions and the use of child soldiers, forced labor, and torture are common.

The recent violence has shown the world the extent of Myanmar’s brutal crimes. Urge the United Nations to take urgent steps to get Myanmar’s junta to stop the crackdown.

Sign this petition and stand with the people of Burma.

I support the people of Burma.

After weeks of peaceful demonstrations, the military government has launched a violent crackdown, and I am deeply concerned about the well being of monks and civilians.

As stated by the UN Human Rights specialist on Myanmar, "this is an emergency" and we need to act now to stop these atrocities. The demonstrators in Myanmar have the right to peacefully express their opinion and the Government of Myanmar has a duty to fully respect this right.

I stand with the people of Burma and demand that the UN Security Council takes urgent steps to get the Myanmar military government to stop the violent crackdown on Buddhist monks and civilians and to address the peaceful political protests without violence.

Thank you for your attention to this urgent matter. Please act now before violence against innocent civilians escalates even further.
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WHAT'S IN YOUR WEATHER FORECAST?

Weather calamities seem to have an eye for Asia this summer although many other parts of the world are far from immune to “Mother’s” growing chaos. In case you do not follow the weather news, here are some of the latest headlines:
“Romania on Flood Alert”
“South Asia monsoon toll passes 2,000.”
“At least 13 dead in Pakistan rains.”
“Rivers above alert levels as rain subsides over central Europe.”
“Storms batter Ohio.”
“Extreme floods hit 500 million people a year.”
“Floods, landslides kill 35 in China.”
“Floods show need for disaster risk reduction: UN.”
“Hong Kong issues cyclone warning.”
“Did global warming cause NYC tornado?”

There are a lot more headlines dealing with the tornado in Brooklyn, rising death toll in Asia due to flooding, sweltering heat that is still rampant in parts of the U.S., deaths from flooding and starvation in Vietnam, deaths from storms in the Philippines, a ‘mini-tsunami’ in Algeria and an announcement by the UN that many parts of the world have confronted record breaking heat waves, floods, storms and cold snaps including snowfall in Africa.

What is evident from many of these stories is that governments are not ready to deal with repeated natural disasters. In 2005 an agreement, the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, was signed by 168 countries in Kobe, Japan. Between 2001 and 2005 84% of deaths due to natural disasters were caused by flooding. It is clear that, like many well meaning agreements, that many governments have not taken their commitments to heart. Given that more and increased flooding is inevitable, what will governments do to prevent further loss of life and property? When will governments get their heads out of the sand and realize that climate change is a much bigger threat than terrorism?

The ISDR says that modest investments in early warning systems, evacuation plans, public education and better building standards can greatly reduce the loss of life and property. Unfortunately, many nations are too poor for even these modest efforts and if disaster strikes, limited funds must go to relief. The richer nations have tended to take an “It won’t happen here attitude” and the effects of that line of thing have been clear in the U.S., England and central Europe.

One must keep in mind that much of this flooding is due to heavy and long rains and does not include what may happen in terms of hurricanes and monsoons. Add to these equation problems from heat waves, earthquakes, droughts, freak snows and tornadoes hitting the downtown areas of cities and it is evident that we could be facing some real problems. All of these natural disasters are costing billions of dollars in property loss, disrupting economies, creating social chaos and costing lives. How deep are the pockets of relief agencies and charitable organizations?

We are standing in the middle of the environmental highway and Mother Nature is driving right at us. There is a lot of talk and very little action. Policy makers are still acting like we have scores of years to “begin” to solve these problems. Perhaps it is so out of hand that governments fear telling people how bad things may get. Panic is not a pretty sight. It has been said that disasters can bring out the best in people but events in Pakistan and India have put that notion to a severe test; the grade is not encouraging.

It is a little easier to offer assistance when only a relatively small or remote population is affected by disaster. When disaster is widespread, however, disaster brings out the worst and not the best of human nature. As the American economy begins to falter under the pressures home foreclosures and increasing debt, will the U.S. be so generous to foreign lands drowning under monsoons and other environmental disasters? When we face another Katrina, how much will be left for others particularly when we do know how to effectively and efficiently deal with such issues? As it is said in the “11th Hour,” the clock is ticking. What is in your weather forecast?

MARCHING INTO AN UNCERTAIN FATE

A recent UN report indicates that by 2008, one half of the world’s population will live in cities. According to the AP in London (6/28/07), that means that some 3.3 billion people will live in urban areas and by 2030, this number is expected to climb to 5 billion people. In the United States, nearly 50% of the U.S. population lives in coastal counties and worldwide, one tenth of the population lives in low lying coastal areas. What are these people going to do if sea levels rise?
According to a March IPS report, "Of the more than 180 countries with populations in the low-elevation coastal zone, 130 of them -- about 70 percent -- have their largest urban area extending into that zone," said Bridget Andersen, a research associate at CIESIN, in a statement. Furthermore, the world's largest cities -- those with more than five million residents -- have on average one-fifth of their population and one-sixth of their land area within this coastal zone." According to the IPS report, the countries that will be most vulnerable and who have most number of people living in these low lying areas are China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt, the United States, Thailand and the Philippines. Given the latest concerns over climate “tipping point,” one cannot help but wonder if planners and policy makers will be able to cope with coastal disasters should their models on sea level rises are inaccurate.
Studies from NASA and other scientific communities are greatly concerned that not only do we not understand all of the climate and natural system interactions, but that things are happening a lot faster than anticipated. While warnings say that we must turn things around in the next ten years in order to avoid the worst case climate change scenarios, most government plans call for actions with goals that are 30 years out. Something is terribly wrong with this picture!
Another issue that should be addressed is that with so many people living in urban areas, are these cities capable of dealing with other potential disasters such as typhoons, hurricanes, earthquakes drought or other climate and non-climate related concerns? One only has to look at the effects of hurricane Katrina, the recent flooding in Texas, Jakarta, China and other areas as well the slate of fires knocking on the doors of urban areas. If one didn’t know better, it would seem that half of the world’s population is marching into an uncertain fate.
On a related note, the UN report also indicated that with the rise of urban populations is coming a rise in urban based religious extremism. The U.N. undersecretary general said that, “Extremism is often a reaction to rapid or sudden change.” Given that urban areas are ill prepared to cope with these rising population pressures, it would seem that cities may not only face the scourge of climate change, but social disorder as well. The clock is ticking and bold decisions are in order.