SUMMIT OF THE STATES? THE TUNDRA, ATLANTA AND MORE

A recent AP report (10/17) indicates that the Tundra, worldwide, is warming up. Caribou are on the decline as they have a hard time dealing with change and shrubs are taking hold in was once a permanent frozen wasteland. In the article NOAA said that the change was is rapid and occurring from Alaska to Siberia. This past year sea ice saw a reduction of 23%. As shrubs begin to take a foothold in the Tundra, the area warms even further as the darker earth absorbs more heat.

On the other side of the globe, residents of Ghoramara are fleeing rising sea levels as two islands are being swallowed by the sea. They have landed on the Sunderbans and are the first of what is being called “climate change refugees.”

Back on the home front, the city of Atlanta is down to a 90 day water supply. With no plans in place for getting more water, we may see climate refugees here in the good old US of A. According to state officials, Lake Lanier, which supplies water for some 3 million residents, may well go dry in the next three months. A dry summer and no hurricane activity have brought the region to a major crisis. If a La Nina develops the situation may get even worse

Water is also of great concern in India and China. According to an ANI article, the snows of the Himalayas are melting at an alarming rate. Some 500 million people in South Asia and 250 million people in China may also find themselves with dry faucets. One model run by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment indicates that the North Pole may be free of ice by 2070.
An important thing to keep in mind is that many of these models are not capable of keeping pace with rapid changes in the climate. Few were able to take into account the thawing of the Tundra and the release of methane gas and now they have to take into account the greening of the Tundra. The fact that there still has been no real breakthrough in greenhouse gas reduction plans does not bode well.

The upcoming climate change meeting in Bali in December may be “make or break” for the planet. While the U.S. will attend the session, the Bush Administration is still rejecting the idea of mandatory limits of greenhouse gases, pushing instead for voluntary curbs. The problem is the point is being missed. While there is no question that we must reduce greenhouse gasses, climate change is happening now. The effects are being felt now and they only promise to get worse. Yes, we must try to stop making it worse, but we must plan now to deal with the effects that are already happening. We have no real plans for Atlanta; we do not know the impact of a thawing Tundra: glaciers and sea ice are disappearing at a more rapid rate than projected by most models and we have done nothing to deal with these issues.

Most experts had predicted that climate change would mostly affect third world countries. With 43% of the U.S. under a drought and Atlanta about to go dry, this may very well not be the case. Where will the dollars come from to quench a thirsty Atlanta? What will have to cut to pay the bill? We still have not managed to address the issues from Hurricane Katrina so what makes us think we can deal with other looming disasters? Perhaps there should be a Summit of the States here at home and some real planning can get started.

WATER, WATER...

A report this weekend about Lake Superior is both surprising and a bit disconcerting. The report indicated that over the past five years, Lake Superior, the largest body of fresh water on the planet, has lost 12 trillion gallons of water to evaporation. The news story went on to say that the Lake, representing some 20% of the world’s fresh water, has risen some five degrees in temperature. Once deep waters have become shallow and tankers carry such cargo as coal have had to reduce their weights by around 10% to clear the depleted waters. Local docks have become sandbars and owners are losing the ability to meet dredging costs.

So, where all of this has water gone? The latest weather news may give a clue (this is not scientific but it is related). In Sloth Korea a monsoon has taken six lives; in Southeast Asia twenty six more people have died in flooding in India and Bangladesh; in Uganda whole villages, bridges, farms and schools have been washed away by floods; 15 die in floods in Rwanda; and, of course, we have the damage caused buy Hurricane Humberto. There are also reports from Alaska of villagers fleeing floods as storms surges appear to be putting finishing touches on Kivalena, an Arctic island that will soon be lost to the sea.

The UN’s IPCC reported that within twenty five years, 5.4 billion people will be living in areas where water is scarce. Of course, this assumes that computer models are correct. Recent reports indicate that many of these models are actually wrong and that global climate events may occur at an even faster pace. New factors and relationships keep emerging that invalidate projections and events are proceeding at a more rapid pace.

In a book titled “Save Our Species,” author Robin Greenslade gives a litany of climate changes that have gotten out of control. Among the events he cites are: faster Arctic ice melt, the collapse of Thermohaline Circulation, the faster break up of Antarctica ice sheet, a semi-permanent El Nino, massive forest fires, desertification and flooding, rapid glacial retreat and more. Recent global events tend to support these assertions as floods and fires top many of the weather news stories. Fires in the western U.S., Greece and the heat waves this summer in Europe add credence to the dire predictions.

What is beyond reason is the still apparent lack of sense of urgency on the part of policy and lawmakers. Vice President Cheney still wants to debate the issue and the Bush administration as a whole, while finally coming around, is still reluctant to propose sweeping and drastic environmental and energy policy changes. The recent Vermont Federal Court ruling approving several states’ desire to regulate auto emissions is a start but again, time is of the importance and plans to reduce emissions that are still fifteen years in the future will suffice. As a whole, the American public appears to want change but there is a total lack of the sense of urgency.

If the world is to turn these apparent negative climate changes into an advantage, action needs to be taken now. The mass migration of populations to coastal cities, as reported by the UN, is a death march. Concentrating our efforts on bio fuels in the absence of a sound food policy is suicide. Time is rushing by the Nero and the fiddle story cannot be repeated if we want our children to live in a habitable world.